摘要：为计算南水北调东线工程优势调水频率，选用国内外常用的二维P—Ⅲ分布的计算方法进行南水北调年径流丰枯遭遇分析，并与传统的基于频率的分析方法结果做了比较。研究表明，Qin方法、Moran方法、FGM方法在其适用范围内对二维P—Ⅲ分布计算结果较好，并提供了各种二维P—Ⅲ分布计算方法应用范围的建议。优势调水频率计算结果显示，长江淮河、长江黄河的丰枯同步频率均小于丰枯异步频率，年尺度的优势调水频率不高于40%。三峡建成后，改变了长江中下游的年径流的年内分配，多数月份更有利于调水。为此，要提高南水北调东线工程的利用价值，必须充分考虑调蓄工程的建设，配以相应的运行调度方式，相机从长江引水。

关键词：南水北调东线工程；P—Ⅲ分布；丰枯遭遇分析；优势调水频率

中图分类号：TV68；TV213 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672-1683（2008）01-0100-03

Advantaged Frequency Analysis of the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project

DAI Chang-jun1,GUAN Guang-ming1,SUN Hao2,LI Han-qin1

(1.Changjiang Institute of Survey,Planning,Design and Research,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China;2.Agriculture Development Center,Jiangsu Water Resources Department,Nanjing 210098,China)

Abstract:To evaluate the potential of water transfer of the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project,several methods of calculating joint probability for bivariate P—Ⅲ distribution were applied to analyze plentiful or scanty runoff encountering,and compared with the conventional method.Results indicate that Qin method,Moran method and FGM method can offer more reasonable conclusions.Suggestion is provided for the applied condition on calculation of bivariate P—Ⅲ distribution among these methods.On plentiful or scanty encountering frequency,synchronous frequency is lower than asynchronous one;advantaged frequency is less than 40%.After the Three Gorges Porject is completed,the yearly runoff allocation among months is changed,and advantaged frequency of most months is increased.To enhance the project value,the conveyance canal and water storage project must be well considered and dispatching principle is made to transfer water opportunely from the Yangtze River.

Key words:Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project;P—Ⅲ distribution;plentiful or scanty runoff encountering;advantaged frequency of water transfer.

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作者简介：戴昌军（1979-）男，江苏句容人，硕士，主要从事水利规划设计及水文水资源研究。

来源：《南水北调与水利科技》2008年第1期